Abstract: With the acceleration of urbanization and the continuous advancement of overhead line burial projects, the use of power cables in urban power grids had become increasingly widespread. The stable operation of cables was crucial for the safety and stability of the power grid and is closely related to the daily life of city residents. A study based on the statistical data of 10 kV power cable failures in some urban areas of Shanghai from 2018 to 2023 deeply analyzed the main factors affecting the risk of cable external force damage and constructed a risk assessment model for distribution cable external force damage based on fuzzy mathematics. Example verification showed that the model could effectively reflect the external damage risk level of the construction site where the cable was located, providing a quantitative basis for the operation, maintenance, and development of cables.