基于模糊故障树的海底电缆失效风险评估

    Risk Assessment of Submarine Cable Failure Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree

    • 摘要: 海底电缆在长期服役过程中受到海流冲刷、地质条件演化、腐蚀、锚击等多种因素作用,失效模式繁多且复杂。准确评估海底电缆的失效风险有利于掌握海底电缆运行状态,提前进行海底电缆失效的预防与处置,降低事故发生率,提高服役安全性。针对海底电缆失效模式和引发因素多、失效风险评估困难的问题,文中总结并分析了海底电缆的主要失效模式及其概率和权重;结合层级分析与模糊综合评价法(fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,FCE),提出了基于模糊故障树的海底电缆失效风险评估方法。通过工程实例,确定了海底电缆的失效概率为7.45×10−2,风险等级较低,验证了所提出方法的可行性。该方法有利于提前采取防护措施,可降低事故发生概率、保障海底电缆安全运行。

       

      Abstract: During long-term service, submarine cables are subject to various factors such as ocean currents, geological evolution, corrosion, and anchor strikes, resulting in a wide range of complex failure modes. Accurately assessing the risk of submarine cable failure is beneficial for understanding operational status of submarine cables, preventing and handling submarine cable failures in advance, reducing accident rates, and improving service safety. In response to the problems of multiple failure modes and triggering factors of submarine cables, as well as the difficulty of failure risk assessment, main failure modes of submarine cables, including their probability and weight, were summarized and analyzed. Combined hierarchical analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE), risk assessment of submarine cable failure based on fuzzy fault tree was proposed. Through engineering case analysis, the probability of submarine cable failure was determined to be 7.45×10−2, and risk level was relatively low, which verified the feasibility of the proposed method. The method was beneficial for taking protective measures in advance to reduce the probability of accidents and ensure safe operation of submarine cables.

       

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