基于模糊故障树的海底电缆失效风险评估方法研究
Research on the Risk Assessment Method of Submarine Cable Failure Based on Fuzzy Fault Tree
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摘要: 海底电缆在长期服役过程中受到海流冲刷、地质条件演化、腐蚀、锚击等多种因素作用,失效模式繁多且复杂。准确评估海底电缆的失效风险有利于掌握海底电缆运行状态,提前进行海底电缆失效的预防与处置,降低事故发生率,提高服役安全性。针对海底电缆失效模式与引发因素多、失效风险评估困难的问题,总结了海底电缆主要失效模式并分析了其概率与权重结合层级分析与模糊综合评价法(fuzzy comprehensive evaluation,FCE),提出了基于模糊故障树的海底电缆失效风险评估方法。通过工程实例分析,确定海底电缆失效概率为7.45×10−2,且危险等级较低,验证了所提出方法的可行性。有益于提前采取防护措施,以降低事故发生概率及保障海底电缆安全运行。Abstract: During long-term service, submarine cables are subject to various factors such as ocean currents, geological evolution, corrosion, and anchor strikes, resulting in a wide range of complex failure modes. Accurately assessing the risk of submarine cable failure is beneficial for understanding the operational status of submarine cables, preventing and handling submarine cable failures in advance, reducing accident rates, and improving service safety. In response to the problems of multiple failure modes and triggering factors of submarine cables, as well as the difficulty of failure risk assessment, this paper summarizes the main failure modes of submarine cables and analyzes their probability and weight combined hierarchical analysis and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation methods. A fuzzy fault tree based submarine cable failure risk assessment method is proposed. Through engineering case analysis, the probability of submarine cable failure is determined to be 7.45 × 10−2, and the hazard level is relatively low, which verifies the feasibility of the proposed method. Beneficial for taking protective measures in advance to reduce the probability of accidents and ensure the safe operation of submarine cables.
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