漆包线耐电晕寿命测试数据的分布规律研究

    Research on the distribution patterns of test data on the corona-resistance life of enamelled wire

    • 摘要: 准确评估漆包线的耐电晕寿命一直是行业内长期关注的难点,主要原因是测试数据存在较大分散性,难以准确判断不同实验室间的测试结果是否存在显著差异。明确单组内部数据的分布规律是进行组间显著性分析的前提。基于此,论文以某型号漆包线的耐电晕寿命数据为研究对象,分别采用正态分布、对数正态分布、三参数威布尔分布这3种典型的寿命分布函数进行线性化回归分析,并通过比较相关系数来评估其拟合优度。结果表明:三参数威布尔分布的相关系数最高,对数正态分布次之,正态分布最低。这表明,三参数威布尔分布能够更好地表征漆包线耐电晕寿命数据的分布特征,而正态分布则不适用于此类数据的分析。进一步分析发现,对数正态分布模型在较低失效概率下对耐电晕寿命的估计值偏低,而在较高失效概率下的估计值又偏高,表明对数正态分布模型不太适用于较高或者较低失效概率下的耐电晕寿命研究。相比之下,三参数威布尔分布模型在全寿命区间均表现出更高的拟合精度,其预测结果更加准确。

       

      Abstract: Accurate evaluation for corona resistance life time of enamelled wires is always been a challenging issue in the winding wires industry due to the large dispersion of test data. This large dispersion makes it difficult for us to determine whether there is significant difference between each laboratory. And the determination of dispersion patterns of within-group data is prior to the analysis on the significant difference of between-group data. This paper uses three typical life distribution functions such as normal distribution, lognormal distribution and Weibull distribution to analyze the data of corona resistance life of a kind of enamelled wires by linear regression method. Results showed that the correlation coefficients of three types of functions were ranked as three-parameter Weibull distribution, log-normal distribution and normal distribution. Therefore, the three-parameter Weibull distribution could give a better description of the distribution characteristics of the data for corona resistance life time of enamelled wires, while the normal distribution is not suitable. Lognormal distribution model gives a shorter characteristic value of corona-resistance life time at low failure probability and a higher one at high failure probability, which shows that Lognormal distribution model is not suitable for the calculation of corona resistance life time at high or low failure probability. However, three-parameter Weibull distribution model shows more advantages in accuracy and safety.

       

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