漆包线耐电晕寿命测试数据概率分布模型

    Probabilistic Distribution Models for Corona Resistance Life Test Data of Enamelled Wires

    • 摘要: 准确评估漆包线的耐电晕寿命是行业内长期关注的难点,主要原因是测试数据存在较大分散性,难以准确判断不同实验室间的测试结果是否存在显著差异。明确单组内部数据的分布规律是进行组间显著性分析的前提。基于此,文中以漆包线的耐电晕寿命数据为研究对象,分别采用正态分布、对数正态分布、三参数威布尔分布(包括双参数和三参数)等典型的寿命分布函数进行线性回归分析,并通过比较相关系数来评估其拟合优度。结果表明,三参数威布尔分布的相关系数最高,对数正态分布次之,正态分布最低,这表明三参数威布尔分布能够更好地表征漆包线耐电晕寿命数据的分布特征,而正态分布则不适用于此类数据的分析。进一步分析发现,对数正态分布模型在较低失效概率下对耐电晕寿命的估计值偏低,而在较高失效概率下的估计值又偏高,这表明对数正态分布模型不太适用于较高或者较低失效概率下的耐电晕寿命研究。相比之下,三参数威布尔分布模型在全寿命区间均表现出更高的拟合精度,其预测结果更加准确。

       

      Abstract: Accurate evaluation of corona resistance life time of enamelled wires has been a challenge in the industry due to the considerable dispersion of test data, which makes it difficult to determine whether significant differences exist among laboratories. Clarifying the distribution pattern within a single group of data is a prerequisite for conducting significance analysis between groups. Based on this, the corona resistance life data of enamelled wires were analyzed using several typical life distribution functions, including the normal distribution, lognormal distribution, and two-parameter and three-parameter Weibull distributions. Linear regression analysis was performed, and the goodness of fit was evaluated by comparing the correlation coefficients. Results showed that the three-parameter Weibull distribution yielded the highest correlation coefficient, followed by the lognormal distribution, while the normal distribution exhibited the lowest value. This indicated that the three-parameter Weibull distribution could better characterize the distribution characteristics of the corona resistance life data of enamelled wires, whereas the normal distribution was not suitable for such analysis. Further analysis revealed that the lognormal distribution model underestimated the corona resistance life at low failure probabilities and overestimated it at high failure probabilities, suggesting that it was not appropriate for studying corona resistance life under extreme failure probabilities. In contrast, the three-parameter Weibull distribution model demonstrated higher fitting accuracy across the entire life range, providing more reliable predictions.

       

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